In retail, inventory levels don’t drift—they swing.

One quarter it’s stockouts. The next, you’re buried in excess. The cycle repeats. And for many retail brands, this pendulum has been especially brutal in recent years.

COVID Made the Pendulum Impossible to Ignore

During the COVID-19 pandemic, brands scrambled to keep up with unprecedented demand shifts. Many retailers were chronically understocked in 2020, then overcompensated in 2021 and 2022—leading to oversupply, markdowns, and strained cash flow.

As one retail leader put it:

“We spent years understocked, then overbought during COVID. Then we ran out again. Now we’re overstocked once more.”

This isn’t an outlier. It’s an industry-wide pattern.

Why Traditional Inventory Planning Keeps Brands on the Pendulum

Legacy inventory planning processes—usually a mix of spreadsheets, static ERP exports, and gut instinct—weren’t built for the volatility of modern commerce. In fast-moving environments, these outdated systems force operators into reactive cycles:

A demand spike hits → inventory sells out
New inventory arrives too late → consumer interest wanes
Teams overcorrect on the next buy → margins get crushed

This is the pendulum in action: over-ordering, under-ordering, and repeating the cycle.

Without foundational changes to how inventory is forecasted, monitored, and adjusted, the pendulum is inevitable.

How Leading Brands Are Breaking the Cycle

Modern inventory leaders are shifting away from static planning tools and embracing real-time, AI-enhanced decision-making. Here’s how they’re doing it:

1. AI-Driven Demand Forecasting

Predictive models powered by machine learning can account for seasonality, promotions, influencer activity, and macroeconomic shifts—delivering a more accurate view of demand.

2. Live Inventory Monitoring

Dashboards that surface overstock risk, size breaks, and low-supply SKUs in real time enable faster, smarter decisions.

3. Scenario Planning and Risk Calibration

By running multiple demand scenarios, planners can simulate outcomes and set different risk thresholds by product class, size, or channel.

Flagship: A Smarter Way to Plan Inventory

At Flagship, we built a platform specifically to help retailers escape the pendulum.

Our solution enables brands to:

Predict demand with machine learning–based scenarios
Monitor inventory in real time with dynamic dashboards
Set optimal inventory targets and adjust quickly to change
Prevent costly overstock, size breaks, and rush shipping

Flagship’s inventory optimization software brings together the flexibility of spreadsheets with the speed and structure of software—allowing operators to make smarter inventory bets before they become emergencies.

From Pendulum to Control

The future of inventory planning isn’t just about better data—it’s about better timing, better decisions, and more agility.

Optimal inventory shouldn’t be a temporary win. With the right systems in place, it can be your permanent position.

If your brand is still relying on spreadsheets and static plans to manage inventory in 2025, it’s not a matter of if the pendulum swings again—it’s when.

Let’s stop the swing.
Request a demo to learn how Flagship helps retail brands take back control.